Author Topic: Day Three Thoughts, June 12, 2013  (Read 6317 times)

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Offline DiwataMan

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Re: Day Three Thoughts, June 12, 2013
« Reply #15 on: June 13, 2013, 04:36:40 PM »
Where did you get those numbers?

I found different ones in a Census Bureau report.

From here:
http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=DEC_10_DP_DPDP1

HISPANIC OR LATINO AND RACE       
Total population   422,718   100.0
Hispanic or Latino   72,457   17.1
White alone   50,212   11.9
Black or African American alone   2,911   0.7
American Indian and Alaska Native alone   391   0.1
Asian alone   241   0.1
Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone   64   0.0
Some Other Race alone   14,219   3.4
Two or More Races   4,419   1.0

Not Hispanic or Latino   350,261   82.9
White alone   280,452   66.3
Black or African American alone   44,196   10.5
American Indian and Alaska Native alone   995   0.2
Asian alone   15,451   3.7
Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone   194   0.0
Some Other Race alone   1,202   0.3
Two or More Races   7,771   1.8

Offline ding7777

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Re: Day Three Thoughts, June 12, 2013
« Reply #16 on: June 13, 2013, 06:00:14 PM »
Let's take the females for example from above (17 of 25). I assume that 50% of the population is female. As such this is the same probability as flipping a coin. Out of 25 picks from the population 12 or 13 females would be the most probable, but also 11 or 14 females wouldn't be that much less probable. 10 or 15 females starts to be relatively improbable. Picking a number at least as extreme as 17 females would happen only 11% of the time. In other words if I picked 25 people randomly, then another 25 randomly, then another 25 randomly until I had 100 picks of 25, I would expect to have picked a number at least as extreme as 17 only 11 of the 100 times.
I hope that helps. It is hard to explain this stuff without graphs.

Maybe more males are on active duty (military or guard) and were excused.   

Offline jjr495

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Re: Day Three Thoughts, June 12, 2013
« Reply #17 on: June 13, 2013, 06:03:50 PM »
Look at the new numbers from today. The gender gap is closing.

Offline TalkLeft

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Re: Day Three Thoughts, June 12, 2013
« Reply #18 on: June 13, 2013, 07:14:54 PM »
I caught the dismissal of E-7.  It's in the first sentence of a post, where all the following material is about the next prospect.  Edit to add, I see you removed the remark about the dismissed juror, because you though it pertained to the following prospect, or thought others would jump to that conclusion.

It seemed lto me you were saying  the prior juror with a B number (who I had just finished writing about )was the FB juror.  In any event, when I learned it was E7, I removed that sentence. Sorry if I misunderstood. I actually spent about 15 minutes trying to figure out if you were right that it was the B guy.

Offline nomatter_nevermind

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Re: Day Three Thoughts, June 12, 2013
« Reply #19 on: June 13, 2013, 11:06:14 PM »
From here:
http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=DEC_10_DP_DPDP1

I don't think that link takes me to the same page as it does you.

First, I'm seeing numbers for the whole U.S., not Seminole County, Fla.

Second,  I don't see the same numbers. I see 16.3 where you have 17.1, and 12.2 where you have 10.5.

If there's a handy way to go from that page to one with the corresponding county level data, I'm not seeing it.

Also, your immediate source is relying on the same ultimate source as does mine, the U.S. Census Bureau. I don't see why you would be getting such different numbers for Seminole County. Even for a different year, the discrepancy seems too large. That is, unless you are getting something like the 1990 census.

On a different point altogether, I would also take issue with your counting only non-Hispanic blacks.

Offline cboldt

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Re: Day Three Thoughts, June 12, 2013
« Reply #20 on: June 13, 2013, 11:21:01 PM »
It seemed to me you were saying  the prior juror with a B number (who I had just finished writing about )was the FB juror.  In any event, when I learned it was E7, I removed that sentence. Sorry if I misunderstood. I actually spent about 15 minutes trying to figure out if you were right that it was the B guy.

No apology needed.  Seeing as how it took you that long to try to make sense of it, and you eventually thought I was referring to a juror other than E-7, then better the remark be removed.

Offline DiwataMan

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Re: Day Three Thoughts, June 12, 2013
« Reply #21 on: June 14, 2013, 12:32:14 AM »
I don't think that link takes me to the same page as it does you.

First, I'm seeing numbers for the whole U.S., not Seminole County, Fla.

Second,  I don't see the same numbers. I see 16.3 where you have 17.1, and 12.2 where you have 10.5.

If there's a handy way to go from that page to one with the corresponding county level data, I'm not seeing it.

Also, your immediate source is relying on the same ultimate source as does mine, the U.S. Census Bureau. I don't see why you would be getting such different numbers for Seminole County. Even for a different year, the discrepancy seems too large. That is, unless you are getting something like the 1990 census.

On a different point altogether, I would also take issue with your counting only non-Hispanic blacks.

http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/index.xhtml
You'll have to type in "Seminole County" then click on the link under:

2010 Census
    Population, Age, Sex, Race, Households and Housing ...

Take issue with it all you want, those are the numbers I use.

Offline nomatter_nevermind

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Re: Day Three Thoughts, June 12, 2013
« Reply #22 on: June 14, 2013, 04:00:54 AM »
http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/index.xhtml
You'll have to type in "Seminole County" then click on the link under:

2010 Census
    Population, Age, Sex, Race, Households and Housing ...

Thanks. I see the numbers now.

I also see what I was missing before, when I mentioned the 1990 census.  I wasn't taking account of the very point I made further down, that you aren't counting the Hispanic blacks. That, plus your use of the 2010 direct count rather than the 2011 projections, accounts for the discrepancy.

Quote
Take issue with it all you want, those are the numbers I use.

I don't care what you do. I'm just saying what I think because, you know, it's a discussion forum.

I am curious about why you wouldn't count Hispanic Blacks. I don't see an obvious reason for that.

Offline cboldt

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Re: Day Three Thoughts, June 12, 2013
« Reply #23 on: June 14, 2013, 04:05:29 AM »
I am curious about why you wouldn't count Hispanic Blacks. I don't see an obvious reason for that.

The way I see it, he is counting them.  They are a subset of the (fully counted) Hispanic category.  Is your suggestion that they not be counted as Hispanics, but instead be shifted to the AA Black group?  It's a fairly small subset, I don't  think the shift would much affect the probability calculation outcomes, for what THOSE are worth.

Offline nomatter_nevermind

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Re: Day Three Thoughts, June 12, 2013
« Reply #24 on: June 14, 2013, 04:43:34 AM »
They are a subset of the (fully counted) Hispanic category.

No, he's only counting Hispanic Hispanics.

That is, he is only counting those who tell the Census Bureau that Hispanic is their ethnicity, and that Hispanic is their race. And that makes sense if you are using Hispanic as a racial category, distinguishing Hispanics from blacks and whites. Assuming, that is, that those who would identify their ethnicity as non-Hispanic, and their race as Hispanic, are negligible. That seems to me to be a reasonable assumption.

When you do it that way, Hispanic blacks are black, and Hispanic whites are white. (I'm ignoring those who identify themselves as multiracial, which is another complication.)
« Last Edit: June 14, 2013, 04:46:09 AM by nomatter_nevermind »

Offline cboldt

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Re: Day Three Thoughts, June 12, 2013
« Reply #25 on: June 14, 2013, 05:46:39 AM »
No, he's only counting Hispanic Hispanics.

Referring to the table below, he is counting 72,457 Hispanics.  That includes all of the racially-separated subgroups, including the 2,911 who are black or AA Hispanics.

His 17.1% hispanic, 66.3% white and 10.5% black totals less than 100%.  The biggest omission is asians who are not hispanic.

Out of 422,718 total, 72,457 are hispanic, 350,261 are not hispanic.  All of the hispanics are counted (some of which are black hispanics), but not all of the not-hispanics are counted.

Total population   422,718   100.0
Hispanic or Latino   72,457   17.1
White alone   50,212   11.9
Black or African American alone   2,911   0.7
American Indian and Alaska Native alone   391   0.1
Asian alone   241   0.1
Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone   64   0.0
Some Other Race alone   14,219   3.4
Two or More Races   4,419   1.0

Not Hispanic or Latino   350,261   82.9
White alone   280,452   66.3
Black or African American alone   44,196   10.5
American Indian and Alaska Native alone   995   0.2
Asian alone   15,451   3.7
Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone   194   0.0
Some Other Race alone   1,202   0.3
Two or More Races   7,771   1.8

Offline nomatter_nevermind

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Re: Day Three Thoughts, June 12, 2013
« Reply #26 on: June 14, 2013, 06:53:36 AM »
All of the hispanics are counted

I see what you mean. The 'Hispanic or Latino' line is the sum of the lines below, not a separate category. My error.

 

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